Vietnam has once again affirmed its unshakeable position as the powerhouse of the global agricultural market. In a historic turn of events, 2025 marked a milestone year for the Vietnamese cashew industry, shattering previous records and officially joining the country’s elite “$5 Billion Export Club.” With a dominant grasp on over 80% of global export volume, Vietnam is not just leading the market; it is defining it.

Source: Ministry of Industry and Trade

However, beneath the record-breaking numbers lies a significant shift in global trade dynamics. For the first time in over a decade, the United States has lost its crown as Vietnam’s largest cashew customer, ceded to a surging Chinese market. This article delves into the statistics, the market shifts, and the future outlook for the world’s favorite nut.

A Historic Milestone: Joining the “$5 Billion Club”

According to the latest data released by the General Department of Customs, the Vietnamese cashew sector ended 2025 on a high note. In December 2025 alone, export turnover reached $466 million, a robust increase of 29% compared to the same period the previous year.

This strong finish pushed the total accumulated export turnover for the entire year to $5.229 billion. This figure is significant for two reasons:

1. Breaking Records: It is the second consecutive year the industry has broken its own revenue record. 2024 was the first time the sector crossed the $4 billion mark, and just one year later, it has leaped past $5 billion.
2. Elite Status: The cashew industry now stands shoulder-to-shoulder with other key Vietnamese agricultural pillars like coffee, fruit/vegetables, and rice in the prestigious “$5 Billion Club.”

In terms of volume, the industry also saw impressive growth. Export output reached 766,585 tons, an increase of 5.7% compared to 2024. These numbers solidify Vietnam’s reputation as the world’s processing hub for the cashew nut.

The Great Market Shift: China Overtakes the U.S.

For more than ten years, the United States has been the undisputed primary market for Vietnamese cashew kernels, typically accounting for over 20% of total exports. However, 2025 witnessed a dramatic restructuring of trade flows.

China has officially surpassed the U.S. to become the largest consumer of Vietnamese cashews.

• China: Reached $1.115 billion in turnover.
• USA: Dropped to second place with $975 million.
• Netherlands: Remained in third place with $495 million.

Why is China Consuming More Cashews?

The surge in demand from China is not accidental. Data from the Ministry of Industry and Trade highlights that in the first 11 months of 2025 alone, exports to China increased by 35.5% in volume and nearly 50% in value.

Mr. Bach Khanh Nhut, Vice President of the Vietnam Cashew Association (VINACAS), attributes this boom to two main factors:

1. Economic Recovery: As the Chinese economy rebounds, consumer spending power has returned.
2. Health Trends: There is a growing demand for healthy agricultural products. The cashew nut, known for its nutritional value, fits perfectly into the modern Chinese consumer’s diet. Vietnamese enterprises have also adapted quickly to meet stricter quality and packaging requirements from Chinese partners.

The U.S. Market Decline: The Impact of Tariffs

Conversely, exports to the U.S. faced significant headwinds. The primary driver for this decline appears to be policy-related. In April 2025, the U.S. administration announced potential countervailing duties on trade partners.

Source: Equitable Growth

This announcement created a wave of hesitation among American importers. Fearing that shipments arriving in the U.S. would be hit with retroactive or new taxes, many buyers paused or reduced their orders. This psychological barrier significantly impacted the flow of cashew exports to what was traditionally Vietnam’s most reliable market.

Where Does the Raw Cashew Come From?

Vietnam sources raw nuts primarily from neighboring countries and Africa:

1. Cambodia: The largest supplier, accounting for 32.9% of total import turnover (up 38.7%).
2. Ivory Coast: Accounting for 25.3% (up 47.6%).
3. Nigeria: Accounting for 9.3% (up 42%).
4. Ghana: Accounting for 7.7% (up 12%).

This reliance on imports highlights a critical vulnerability. According to VINACAS, domestic supply currently meets only about 10% of the processing capacity. The remaining 90% depends entirely on external sources, leaving Vietnamese processors exposed to global price fluctuations and supply chain disruptions.

In summary, 2025 was a year of broken records and shifting tides for the Vietnam cashew sector. With $5.2 billion in revenue, the industry has proven its resilience and capacity. Now, the challenge for 2026 is to secure the supply chain and adapt to the new reality where China, not the U.S., leads the demand.

Source: CafeF

01/02/2026